When the Grown-Ups Leave the Room š
Geopolitical chaos, strategic drift, & why clear thinking matters more than ever
What a world. š
In the span of 3 weeks, we watched the worst American president threaten military force against a NATO ally to seize an Arctic territory, confuse Iceland with Greenland in a speech to global leaders, & then declare victory on a āframeworkā that NATOās own spokesperson confirmed involved no discussion of sovereignty. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping sits patient as stone in Beijing, & Putin watches from Moscow with barely concealed glee as the transatlantic alliance tears itself apart over... ice.
The Kremlin didnāt even bother commenting. Why would they? As one analyst put it, this whole episode is āa massive win for Putin for which he pays no price.ā
Let that sink in. ā
The Gift That Keeps Giving š
Hereās what happened: Trump threatened Denmarkāa founding NATO memberāwith tariffs & wouldnāt rule out military action to take Greenland. Denmark & 7 other European allies responded by deploying combat troops to the Arctic. The EU suspended the latest trade agreement. Markets tanked. Then, at Davos, Trump announced a āframework dealā that appears to involve... exactly what already existed before he started this crisis: continued U.S. access to Pituffik Space Base and promises of more Arctic security cooperation.
Ian Bremmer , president of Eurasia Group, called it what it was: āTACOāTrump Always Chickens Out.ā š®
But hereās the part that keeps me up at night. While we were distracted by this self-inflicted wound, the real strategic picture got clearer & darker:
China is methodically building influence across the Pacific islands; places that actually matter for military logistics & supply chain disruption. Russia is expanding its Arctic footprint along the Northern Sea Route. Of course ā we just spent three weeks alienating every European ally we have while demonstrating to the world that American treaty commitments are negotiable.
As EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noted: āChina and Russia must be having a field day.ā
The Adaptation Imperative š
Hereās what connects the geopolitical chaos to what Iāve been thinking about lately.
Iāve been spending time with SCSPās Adaptation in War analysis of Ukraine, and the parallels to strategic competition are striking. Ukraine survived against a larger adversary through relentless adaptation; tactical, operational, and strategic. They didnāt start with better weapons; they started with better learning systems.
Ukraine evolved from a Soviet-legacy force to 1 capable of integrating NATO doctrine, drone warfare, & AI-enabled intelligence faster than anyone predicted. They achieved this not through grand strategy documents but thru what the military calls āoperational learningā; the ability to observe, orient, decide, & act (OODA) faster than your opponent.
Now apply that lens to Great Power Competition.
China isnāt trying to out-muscle America militarily (yet). Theyāre trying to out-adapt us strategically. Their Belt & Road Initiative, their technology transfer programs, their patient cultivation of relationships across the Global South; these arenāt random activities. Theyāre strategic adaptation at a civilizational scale.
Russiaās information warfare, energy coercion, and exploitation of Western political divisions; same principle. Theyāve figured out how to compete asymmetrically against a stronger opponent.
And what are we doing? Threatening our own allies while our adversaries watch & learn. š¤¦ And maybe even cheer.
What Iām Listening To š§
In the midst of all this, Iāve been drawing clarity from some excellent podcast conversations.
Tim Ferris recently had Dr. Michael Levin on. Iām not going to steal the anticipation but this was impressively done. Especially the part about Diverse Intelligence.
Shane Parrish on The Knowledge Project featured Peter Kaufmanās legendary talk on multidisciplinary thinking; the speech Charlie Mungerās friend gave that was never meant to be public. Kaufmanās thesis: the most powerful insights come from finding patterns that repeat across domains. Physics, biology, psychologyāthe same principles keep appearing. The Knowledge Project: Peter Kaufman on Multidisciplinary Thinking
Rich Roll had Will Bulsiewicz discussing the gut-immune connection as the root determinant of chronic inflammation; the silent driver behind three out of five deaths. We discuss the four nutritional workhorses, why your microbiome is nocturnal, and what happens when you eat after dark.
The Atlanticās @Autocracy Inc. series with Anne Applebaum continues to track the institutional changes reshaping American democracy. Her framework for understanding democratic backsliding provides useful analytical tools regardless of your political priors. The Atlantic: Autocracy in America
Clear Thinking in Chaos š§
Hereās what I keep coming back to: Strategic clarity requires distinguishing between signal and noise. The Greenland episode was noise; a self-created crisis that distracted from actual strategic challenges and weakened us in the process.
The signals we should be tracking:
Chinaās technological trajectory in AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing. Technology leadership matters. The question is whether our actions support or undermine that goal.
Russiaās exploitation of Western divisions. Every crack in NATO is an opportunity for Moscow. We should stop handing them opportunities.
The adaptation race. Ukraine proved that smaller, more agile forces can hold against larger opponents through faster learning cycles. That lesson applies beyond the battlefield.
Institutional resilience. Democratic systems arenāt self-sustaining. They require active maintenance by people who understand what theyāre protecting.
Set Your Table š½ļø
Iāve been deep in the writing process for Set Your Table, and moments like these reinforce why the book matters.
Too many leadersāin business, government, and beyondāhave strategies that stall in execution. They mistake motion for progress, noise for signal, tactics for strategy. They react to every provocation instead of maintaining focus on what actually moves the needle.
The book is for frustrated executives who want their strategies to actually work. Itās about creating conditions for execution before you need them. Setting your table before the meal arrives.
Set Your Table will be out soon. This Substack is the place to hear updatesāunless youād like to join the author community at setyourtable.kit.com for early access, behind-the-scenes content, and deeper discussions.
The Bottom Line š
We live in a world where the President of the United States threatened military action against a NATO ally, backed down after European resistance & market pressure, and called it a victory. Where Russia & China are running strategic adaptation playbooks while we generate self-inflicted chaos. Where the institutional guardrails that enabled American power are being tested like never before.
Clear thinking has never been more valuable. The ability to distinguish signal from noise, to maintain strategic focus amid tactical distractions, to adapt faster than our adversaries. These arenāt abstract virtues; Theyāre survival skills.
The grown-ups may have left the room. That just means the rest of us need to step up. šŖ
What strategic signals are you tracking? What podcasts or resources have helped you make sense of the chaos? Reply and let me know.
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